Who owns the globe's nukes?

Despite progress in reducing nuclear weapon arsenals since the Cold War, the world'south combined inventory of nuclear warheads remains at a very high level: nine countries possessed roughly 12,700 warheads every bit of early-2022.

Approximately 90 percent of all nuclear warheads are endemic by Russia and the United States, who each have around iv,000 warheads in their military stockpiles; no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security.

Globally, the overall inventory of nuclear weapons is declining, but the step of reductions is slowing compared with the past 30 years. Moreover, these reductions are happening just because the U.s. and Russian federation are still dismantling previously retired warheads.

In dissimilarity to the overall inventory of nuclear weapons, the number of warheads in global armed services stockpiles––which comprises warheads assigned to operational forces––is increasing in one case once again. The United States is still reducing its nuclear stockpile slowly. France and Israel have relatively stable inventories. But China, India, North korea, Pakistan and the Great britain, as well as possibly Russian federation, are all thought to be increasing their stockpiles (meet map):

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Of the earth'south 12,700 nuclear warheads, more than 9,400 are in the armed forces stockpiles  for use past missiles, aircraft, ships and submarines.  The remaining warheads have been retired simply are still relatively intact and are pending dismantlement). Of the 9,440 warheads in the military stockpiles, some iii,730 are deployed with operational forces (on missiles or bomber bases). Of those, approximately 2,000 United states of america, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alarm, ready for employ on brusk observe (meet table):

The exact number of nuclear weapons in each country's possession is a closely held national secret, and so the estimates presented here come with significant uncertainty. Nigh nuclear-armed states provide essentially no information nigh the sizes of their nuclear stockpiles. Yet the degree of secrecy varies considerably from country to country. Between 2010 and 2018, the United disclosed its total stockpile size, but in 2019 the Trump administration stopped that practice. Fortunately, in 2020, the Biden administration restored nuclear transparency – a victory for nuclear accountability in a democratic state. Despite limitations, however, publicly available information, conscientious analysis of historical records, and occasional leaks brand it possible to make best estimates nearly the size and composition of the national nuclear weapon stockpiles. For a breakdown of the nuclear warhead categories of the unlike nuclear-armed states, and for links to more details overviews of each country's arsenals, see this table:

Status of World Nuclear Forces 2022
Country Deployed
Strategic 		Deployed
Nonstrategic 		Reserve/
Nondeployed 		Military machine
Stockpile a 		Full Inventory b
 Russia  one,588 c 0 d  two,889 e 4,477 v,977 f
 The states  1,644 thou 100 h  1,964 i 3,708 j 5,428 thousand
 France  280 l n.a. 10 l 290 290
 Communist china  0 one thousand ? 350 350 350 1000
 United Kingdom 120 n northward.a. 60 180 225 n
 State of israel  0 n.a. xc 90 ninety o
 Islamic republic of pakistan  0 due north.a. 165 165 165 p
 India  0 due north.a. 160 160 160 q
 North korea  0 n.a. twenty xx 20 r
Total: s  ~3,632 ~100 ~five,708 ~9,440 ~12,705

How to read this table: "Deployed strategic warheads" are those deployed on intercontinental missiles and at heavy bomber bases. "Deployed nonstrategic warheads" are those deployed on bases with operational short-range delivery systems. "Reserve/Nondeployed" warheads are those not deployed on launchers just in storage (weapons at bomber bases are considered deployed). The "military stockpile" includes active and inactive warheads that are in the custody of the armed forces and earmarked for apply by commissioned deliver vehicles. The "full inventory" includes warheads in the military stockpile as well every bit retired, merely all the same intact, warheads in the queue for dismantlement. For additional guidance, see endnotes below (note: equally estimates are updated, they may vary from the printed materials below).

Expand footnotes

a  Warheads in the "military stockpile" are defined as warheads in the custody of the military and earmarked for use by military forces.
 b  The "total inventory" counts warheads in the military machine stockpile as well as retired, but still intact, warheads awaiting dismantlement.
 c  This number is higher than the aggregate data nether the New START treaty because this table also counts bomber weapons at bomber bases equally deployed. Detailed overview of Russian forces as of 2022 is hither. Numbers take been updated for afterwards changes.
 d  All are declared to be in central storage, although some storage sites may be close to bases with operational forces. Many retired non-strategic warheads are idea to exist pending dismantlement.
 east Includes an estimated 977 strategic warheads and all 1,912 non-strategic warheads.
 f In addition to the 4,477 warheads in the armed services stockpile, an estimated 1,500 retired warheads are idea to exist awaiting dismantlement. Public details are scarce, but we approximate that Russia is dismantling 200-300 retired warheads per twelvemonth. The future of the Russian stockpile size is debated: US Strategic Command and part of the Intelligence Community claim "Russia'south overall nuclear stockpile is likely to grow significantly over the next decade – growth driven primarily by a projected increment in Russia's not-strategic nuclear weapons." Others privately disagree. A major uncertainty is how many tactical weapons will be replaced by new nuclear versions versus conventional weapons. Run into 2022 overview of Russian forces here.
 g  This number is higher than the aggregate data released under the New START information because this tabular array likewise counts bomber weapons on bomber bases equally deployed. Detailed overview of U.S. forces is here.
 h  Approximately 100 B61 bombs are deployed in Europe at six bases in 5 countries (Kingdom of belgium, Germany, Italia, Netherlands, and Turkey).
 i Non-deployed reserve includes an estimated ane,764 strategic and 100 not-strategic warheads in key storage.
 j  The U.Due south. authorities alleged in March 2018 that its stockpile included iii,822 warheads equally of September 2017. After that, the Trump administration decided no longer to declassify the numbers. In 2021, the Biden administration declassified the number of warheads in the stockpile and the number of dismantled warheads, noting that the stockpile consisted of 3,750 warheads as of September 2020. Since and then, additional warheads have been retired for an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,700 warheads.
 k In addition to the roughly three,700 warheads in the war machine stockpile and the 1,900 retired warheads pending dismantlement, approximately 20,000 plutonium cores (pits) and some 4,000 Canned Assemblies (secondaries) from dismantled warheads are in storage at the Pantex Plant in Texas and Y-12 plant in Tennessee. For a detailed overview of U.S. forces, see here.
 50  Weapons for France's single shipping carrier are not deployed on the ship under normal circumstances simply could be on short discover. Warhead loadings on some submarines missiles accept been reduced to increment targeting flexibility. For a detailed overview of French nuclear forces, run across here).
 chiliad Our estimate for the Chinese warhead stockpile is higher than the "depression-200s" listed in the Pentagon's 2020 Communist china report. The reason is that the Pentagon guess is from late-2019 (when we estimated 290) and only includes "operational" warheads, while our gauge also includes warheads produced for missiles in the process of existence fielded. Despite these differences, the estimates show that claims made past some that China might have "many more than 300" or even one,600-3,000 warheads are baseless. Nevertheless, the Chinese stockpile is increasing and US Strategic Command and role of the Intelligence Customs merits that China will "probable double the size of their nuclear stockpile by the stop of the decade." Part of that increase is already well underway and our estimate includes some of information technology. None of the warheads are thought to be fully deployed but kept in storage under primal command. Communist china considers all of its nuclear weapons to be strategic, but the US military calls its medium-and intermediate-range missile non-strategic. Detailed 2021 overview here.
 n The number of British warheads on each submarine was lowered from 48 to 40. This lowered the number of "operationally available" warheads from 160 to 120. The plan was to reduce the stockpile to "not more than 180" by the mid-2020s, but the Johnson authorities announced in 2021 that information technology would increase the stockpile to "no more than 260 warheads." Detailed 2021 overview here.
 o  Although Israel has produced enough plutonium for 100-200 warheads, the number of delivery platforms and estimates made by the U.S. intelligence customs suggest that the stockpile might include approximately ninety warheads. Detailed 2022 overview here.
 p  Estimating the number of Pakistani warheads comes with dandy dubiousness because neither Pakistan nor western governments provide public information. None of Islamic republic of pakistan'due south warheads are thought to be mated with missiles just kept in central storage, about in the southern parts of the land. More warheads are in product. Detailed 2021 overview here.
 q Estimating the number of Indian warheads comes with neat incertitude because neither Indian nor western governments provide public information. Despite efforts to increase readiness, we guess Indian nuclear warheads are non mated with missiles only in key storage. Bomber weapons could probably be employed on relatively short notice. More than warheads are in production. Detailed 2022 overview here.
 r Later on half dozen nuclear tests, including two of x-20 kilotons and ane of more than 150 kilotons, we estimate that North korea might have produced sufficient fissile material for roughly xl-fifty warheads. The number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower. While nosotros estimate North Korea might have approximately 20 assembled warheads for medium-range missiles, nosotros have not even so seen bear witness that it has developed a operation warhead that tin be delivered at ICBM range. Detailed 2022 overview here.
 southward  Numbers may not add upwardly due to rounding and uncertainty about the operational status of the four lesser nuclear weapons states and the dubiety near the size of the total inventories of 3 of the five initial nuclear powers.

In historical context, the number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Common cold State of war: down from a height of approximately lxx,300 in 1986 to an estimated 12,700 in early-2022. Authorities officials often characterize that accomplishment as a issue of current or recent arms control agreements, but in reality the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. Some besides compare today'south numbers with those of the 1950s, but that is like comparison apples and oranges; today's forces are vastly more capable.

The stride of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to keep but because of dismantlement of retired weapons; the trend is that the military stockpiles (useable nuclear weapons) are increasing again.

Instead of planning for nuclear disarmament, the nuclear-armed states appear to plan to retain big arsenals for the indefinite future. Equally such, they're in conflict with the objective and spirit of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

All proceed to modernize their remaining nuclear forces at a significant stride, several are adding new types and/or increasing the role they serve in national strategy and public statements, and all appear committed to retaining nuclear weapons for the indefinite time to come.

For an overview of global modernization programs, see our contribution to the SIPRI Yearbook. Individual country profiles are available from the FAS Nuclear Notebook.

The information available for each country varies profoundly, ranging from the nigh transparent nuclear weapons state (United States) to the most opaque (Israel). Accordingly, while the stockpile estimate for the United States is based on "real" numbers, the estimates for several of the other nuclear-armed states are highly uncertain.

These nuclear weapons estimates are produced by Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda of the Federation of American Scientists. Their work is based on the pioneering accomplishments of analysts Thomas Cochran, Robert Norris, and Willian Arkin, without whom this public service would not be possible.

This work was made possible through grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the FTX Future Fund and Longview Philanthropy, the New-Land Foundation, the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, the Future of Life Establish, the Prospect Loma Foundation, Ploughshares Fund, and individual donors. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors.